4 Trends That Will Dominate This Century

by Kevin Wheeler on August 19, 2009

past-present-futureWe have almost finished the first decade of the 21st Century and change is afoot on a massive scale.  Here are 4 trends that are significant enough to change our lifestyles and challenge our assumptions.  The Future of Talent Institute is offering a free webinar this afternoon at 1pm PDT where these will be discussed in more detail.  If you interested go to this link and register.

Trend 1. In the Western world there are now enough women in the workplace to change how it looks, feels, and functions. It is no longer a man’s world. Women are also dominating higher education and 2 out of 3 undergraduate degrees are now awarded to women.  In the United States  for the first time in American history there are more women than men in the workplace. You can read my recent blog post about this here: “Women Are Displacing Men.”
Trend 2. New organizational forms are taking shape. New companies such as Facebook and IDEO are forging organizations where people take on roles, not specific positions, and where interactivity, collaboration, and intense communication are the primary competencies.  This organizational form can be virtual, distributed, and work can be and is shared. Ownership and responsibility are also shared, as are rewards.  We seems to be moving from a model based on individual performance to one based on team performance.  This has deep implications for human resources from how we will pay people to what is measured as performance. Most assumptions are under assault: work should be performed for a specific set of hours each day, work should be performed in a physical place, people are paid for the time they spend, work and family are separate, and so forth.
Trend 3. Slightly more than 4 workers our of every 100 are independent contractors. SurePayroll tracks the number of people who are paid as independents versus the number who are paid as full-time employees each quarter and, while the number is still quite small, it is growing steadily every quarter. Some of this is forced by the recession, but much is also the result of choice.  I believe that the emerging preferred style of work is an as independent.  This would grow even faster if and when the United States gets universal health care.
Trend 4. Sustainability is the new cultural watchword and almost everyone is focused on using less, refreshing and reusing what they have and reducing consumption. This is much deeper than recession-caused.  It was beginning well before the recession with recycling and an interest in energy conservation. Now it is mainstream and I don’t see people returning to consumer buying at anywhere near the levels of 2006-8.  More people are looking at thrift stores and at used clothing and furniture.  This is especially true among young people where the new cool is to have found the best price for an item of clothing at a thrift store.
These trends will create a new kind of society. One where technology-enabled work, performed anywhere for whomever pays the best price or writes the best contract, will become more common. Organizations will be flatter and smaller. Lifestyles will be based on sustainability and on having time to pursue engaging and interesting work and relationships.

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{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }

vinnie mirchandani August 24, 2009 at 6:32 am

good summary but the outside workforce, not just independents. is grossly understated. In IT, 85% of budgets are now spent with vendors – ergo plenty of outsourced labor.

Trend 1 – unemployment in men in this recession is statistically significantly higher than that in women. Beyond impact on work, huge social changes are resulting.

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Luke McGlynn August 20, 2009 at 6:52 pm

Kevin, Great webinar. As always, thoughtful, insightful and provocative. I agree with your premise that organizations “should” resist the urge to recruit for talent which do not fit core capabilities. But will “hoarding” mentality take over in an economic rebound? The rational man is a fiction!

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Aparna August 20, 2009 at 4:18 am
Mona Melanson August 19, 2009 at 3:09 pm

Kevin,

That was a terrific webinar! Your comments about the trends were very insightful. I will share this with my network here in San Diego. Thank you!

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